Aluminum Sees Strongest Performance Since April 2022
The rally marks a dramatic 6.4% climb in just the first 15 days of 2026, with prices stabilizing at $3,186 per ton after closing 2025 at $2,995.5. Market analysts point to production bottlenecks and restricted output targets as key catalysts propelling the entire base metals sector upward, with copper gains amplifying the broader complex.
Critical to construction, automotive manufacturing, and packaging industries, aluminum has emerged as a cornerstone of the global energy transition. Solar panel production, wind turbine assembly, electric vehicle manufacturing, and battery development have dramatically increased industrial appetite for the metal. Prospects of worldwide economic recovery have added fuel to the price surge.
The artificial intelligence boom has injected fresh demand into markets, with data centers, power infrastructure, and electronics manufacturers accelerating aluminum procurement at unprecedented rates.
Beijing's anticipated economic stimulus measures—specifically production capacity restrictions designed to combat deflation—could propel prices even higher, according to market observers.
Zafer Ergezen, a futures and commodity markets analyst, told media that the new year began with rising expectations of interest rate cuts.
Ergezen said expectations increased after Jerome Powell is set to be replaced by a new Federal Reserve chair to be appointed by US President Donald Trump, while demand for commodities is also rising amid recovery expectations.
"Aluminum becomes one of the most sought-after commodities when growth and recovery in China are expected due to its widespread use in many areas, including the auto industry and home appliances — the demand is expected to rise on this side," he said.
Ergezen added that China is expected to continue domestic incentives this year, supporting hopes of stronger internal demand.
"Global markets expect a recovery, especially in the second half of the year, which is expected to boost demand," he said. "We see companies gradually bracing for this in advance with rising purchases and volumes in forward transactions, and we may see a rise in deliveries, too."
He noted that China and Russia are among the world's top aluminum producers, while tariff concerns and a weakening US dollar have added to price pressures.
"The US is the top aluminum consumer, followed by Japan, so we can say the expectation of a recovery is taking effect," he said.
"Rate cuts, inflation concerns, recovery expectations, the impact of tariffs, a falling US Dollar Index, China's incentives, sanctions on Russia, and supply concerns pushed up aluminum prices," Ergezen added.
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