AGP Executive Report

Japan Macro: Japanese household spending fell 3.3% year-on-year in June, worse than forecasts, adding pressure to the Bank of Japan’s rate decision as it weighs whether September hikes are justified. Mexico Rates: Mexico’s central bank held its benchmark at 6.50% and pushed the inflation return-to-target timeline to late 2027, citing stubborn underlying pressures and risks from the peso and global conflicts. US Labor & Fed Watch: US unemployment claims ticked up while layoffs hit a two-year low, and productivity rose faster than expected—keeping the Fed focused on whether inflation cools enough to avoid September hikes. AI Cloud & Security: Cloudflare lifted its full-year outlook above estimates, betting AI agents will drive more network traffic; Atlassian also surged after results showed cloud growth re-accelerating. Market Microstructure: KOSDAQ leveraged ETFs jumped about 60% over the week, highlighting renewed appetite for high-beta exposure. Energy & Power Constraints: Texas data-center growth faces potential delays after a grid audit pause could postpone nearly 50 GW of new demand, while Europe’s extreme heat and low river levels are disrupting chemical logistics and even nuclear operations. Corporate Movers: Hertz shares jumped after a pricing-led earnings beat; SpaceX stock rose as insider lockups expired, while Nintendo flagged Switch 2 momentum but warned of a looming US price hike. M&A/Biotech: Biogen completed its RayThera acquisition to expand immunology assets, and other healthcare updates underscored continued pipeline investment. Commodities/Mining: B2Gold reported solid Q2 gold output with costs under control, and wool prices in New Zealand firmed after a rough patch, suggesting stabilization in some supply chains.

AI & Semiconductors: Data-center and AI spending kept markets buoyant, but storage names sold off hard after Sandisk/Western Digital forecasts missed lofty expectations, while Asia tech cooled after SpaceX and AMD stumble. Energy & Geopolitics: Oil and risk sentiment tracked Iran/Hormuz deal chatter; traders still see little chance of a shipping rebound by end-August, keeping energy volatility in focus. Rates & FX: Brazil cut Selic to 14% with a neutral tone; Canada’s dollar looks rangebound as catalysts fade. Policy & Markets: India’s Sensex outperformed while Nifty stayed flat amid RBI’s steady stance; in Europe, records held on earnings and improving data. Corporate Turnarounds: Diageo outlined a $1bn cost-cut plan as it resets strategy; Oracle faces credit scrutiny over debt-funded AI data-center expansion. M&A & Media: UK cleared Paramount’s $110bn Warner Bros Discovery deal, even as WBD’s profit fell 91% on linear TV pressure. Commodities & EM: IMF warns Ghana’s gold-heavy exports leave it exposed to gold price drops; Nutrien missed profit on lower volumes despite firmer fertilizer prices. Business Updates: US Foods posted strong Q2 results; Rogers Sugar reported solid quarter progress.

Central Banking: India’s RBI held the repo rate at 5.25% and trimmed its FY27 inflation view to 5% while lifting growth to 6.7%, citing volatile oil, West Asia risks, and global uncertainty. Markets & Macro: US stocks cooled after record runs as the Dow hit a new high on Iran–Oman Strait of Hormuz deal hopes, while the Nasdaq slipped with SpaceX and AMD weighing sentiment. Corporate Earnings: EBay forecast upbeat Q3 revenue, leaning on authenticated luxury and re-commerce; Block lifted its 2026 gross profit outlook on Cash App strength; Disney reaffirmed double-digit earnings growth and pushed buybacks; Eli Lilly surged after raising guidance on GLP-1 demand. Real Economy & Prices: Thailand flagged prepared-food inflation pressures from higher fuel, transport, and ingredient costs; New Zealand showed wages rising slower than prices, widening the cost-of-living squeeze. Real Estate: Multifamily REITs turned more optimistic as renter demand held and deliveries moderated. Energy/Defense Tech: Motorola Solutions raised guidance on public safety demand. Agriculture & Commodities: Grain markets slid on bearish oil and Black Sea export-route worries, while farmers warned Fiji’s sugar industry faces unsustainable cane economics. Consumer/Tech: Used EV prices are falling fast as lease tax timing ends, while Roblox shares plunged on weaker monetization forecasts.

RBI Rate Decision: India’s RBI held the repo rate at 5.25% for the fourth straight meeting, keeping a neutral stance while nudging FY27 growth to 6.7% and lowering the inflation outlook—leaving Sensex up modestly but with traders still cautious. FX & Commodities: A Reuters poll says the US dollar should stay firm before easing later, while the yen’s weakness may need both intervention and higher BOJ rates; oil stays sensitive to Strait of Hormuz deal chatter, with Brent back around $80. AI & Markets: Shopify’s forecast beat expectations on AI-driven merchant demand, sending shares sharply higher; NYT warned digital subscriber growth is slowing and cut its outlook, dragging the stock. Corporate Forecasts: Kraft Heinz lifted annual forecasts after a turnaround push; CVS raised profit guidance and is rolling out $29 MinuteClinic visits for weight-loss drug prescriptions. Tech & Chips: AMD’s results beat but the stock fell as investors wanted a bigger “blowout,” while SpaceX’s first public earnings showed heavy AI/Starship capex—boosting revenue but spooking the market. Policy Risk for AI Infrastructure: A potential FCC ban on new Chinese-made optical transceivers could reshape AI data-center supply chains, with indium constraints a key bottleneck.

Wall Street Rally: The S&P 500 and Dow hit record highs as AI-linked earnings from Palantir and Caterpillar outweighed worries about whether AI spending will pay off, while crude slid on renewed hopes for a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Central Banks & Rates: Wealth managers digested a broad rate-pause week (BoJ, BoE, ECB, Fed), but Japan’s hawkish signals keep the door open for earlier hikes. Semiconductors: AMD beat on revenue and data-center growth, yet shares fell after-hours as investors focused on rising capex and tougher expectations for returns. Energy & Power Demand: New Zealand issued grid alerts ahead of a cold snap that could push record power use, highlighting how quickly demand can stress supply. Labor Watch (NZ): Unemployment in NZ jumped to a 11-year high in the June quarter, adding pressure to the growth outlook. Australia Mining: Fortescue took a Morningstar fair-value downgrade tied to Iron Bridge cost blowouts and weaker near-term assumptions. Telecom Infrastructure (UK): A forecast points to the UK overtaking Spain as Europe’s #2 FTTP broadband market by 2028. Corporate Moves: Hillman agreed to buy Kanebridge for $315m to expand industrial distribution in the US/Canada. SpaceX: First public-company results showed a smaller-than-expected loss and big revenue growth, but investors will watch the coming surge in share supply.

AI & Advertising Tech: Newton Research launched Unlimited Analytics, an agentic AI measurement layer for brands and agencies, aiming to move from correlation to causal forecasting across planning, activation, and optimization. Enterprise Software Shift: Gartner-linked coverage says ERX (enterprise resource experience) is forcing CIOs to rethink ERP modernization as AI increasingly senses, decides, and executes tasks autonomously. UK Equities Outlook: UBS tells clients UK stocks look better than earlier this year, but warns the “game isn’t won” because earnings breadth is still the weak link and BoE cuts likely won’t come until 2027. Steel & Industrial Cycles: Nippon Steel lifted its FY2026 profit outlook after stronger US Steel earnings, upgrading US hot-rolled coil price assumptions. Healthcare Earnings: Pfizer beat expectations and raised revenue guidance while unveiling an extra $2.5B cost-cut plan; Merck also raised its revenue forecast on Keytruda strength. Real Estate & Rates: Kimco Realty reported record occupancy and raised its dividend, while housing-market chatter points to price pressure as rates and tax changes bite. Energy/Geopolitics: Markets tracked renewed Iran-related uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, keeping oil and risk sentiment in focus. Climate Risk: South Korea’s heatwave hit fresh records, with 16 heat-related deaths reported so far this year.

FX Intervention Watch: Japan is believed to have bought about 5 trillion yen in coordinated U.S.-Japan forex intervention, with a two-day total possibly topping 10 trillion, keeping markets focused on yen volatility. Market Mood & Rates: U.S. stocks surged as Middle East tensions eased, crude slid, and Fed optimism grew; New York Fed’s John Williams said inflation should ease but warned rate hikes if it doesn’t. Big Tech Earnings & AI Capex: Amazon crossed $3T market cap after a strong quarter driven by AWS AI/cloud demand, while Morgan Stanley argued hyperscaler cloud capex could be higher than consensus, reshaping semiconductor and data-center expectations. Antitrust & Memory Chips: A new U.S. antitrust class action alleges Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron coordinated supply restrictions that helped drive massive DRAM price spikes—timed with iPhone 18 Pro price increases. Corporate Results & Guidance: onsemi beat with AI-driven data center power demand; Palantir raised its annual forecast on government and commercial momentum; Gotion flagged a sharp H1 profit jump; Hillman lifted outlook and agreed to acquire Kanebridge. Housing & Credit Risk: Australia’s first-home buyers face negative-equity risk after a property slump, while U.S. construction spending unexpectedly fell in June as mortgage rates stayed elevated. Healthcare Supply Constraints: FDA warned a stereotactic breast biopsy needle shortage could last into early 2027, forcing hospitals to prioritize cases. M&A & Capital Markets: OpenPayd filed an amended F-4 for its proposed merger; NXP explored an Ambarella acquisition; SpaceX is set for its first public earnings report, with insider selling and market sensitivity in focus.

Fed Watch: New York Fed Chair John Williams said inflation should ease gradually, but the Fed will raise rates if core progress stalls, keeping markets focused on the next few months of price data. Oil & Geopolitics: Trump said talks with Iran will resume Monday after the US held off on new strikes, easing crude’s geopolitical premium and pulling Brent and WTI lower. India Rates: India’s RBI MPC starts a three-day meeting with a repo-rate pause widely expected at 5.25%, while investors watch inflation and growth guidance into Aug. 5. Semiconductors & Taiwan: Taiwan’s economy grew 12.9% y/y in Q2 on strong AI and chip demand, reinforcing the region’s role in the AI supply chain. M&A Pharma: AstraZeneca is in talks to combine with Bristol Myers Squibb in a near-$400bn deal, a major test for regulators given oncology overlap. Crypto Regulation: US Senate progress on the CLARITY Act is still uncertain, with analysts warning delays could shift tokenization growth away from public crypto networks. Corporate & Markets: Circle shares slid as analysts cut price targets ahead of earnings; IBM’s dividend payout is under scrutiny after a 33% pullback from highs; and Integer agreed to be acquired by KKR for about $5.7bn. Energy Buildout: Power project owners are pushing earlier commitments across engineering, long-lead equipment, and grid access, raising schedule and supply-chain risk. Auto Supply Chain: China’s MIIT is pushing automakers to shorten supplier payment terms via a 60-day commitment and added media oversight. Consumer Tech/Industrials: Corsair took a minority stake in Bitfocus to deepen Stream Deck’s broadcast control ecosystem, while Lennox flagged residential HVAC weakness with recovery benefits extending into 2027. Market Forecasts: Persistence Market Research projects ozone generators to reach $2.57bn by 2033 (6.5% CAGR), and robotic food kiosks to hit $1.75bn by 2036 (25% CAGR).

Philippines Macro: A fresh poll points to Q2 GDP growth around 2.8% (slowing from 2.8% in Q1), with weak public infrastructure spending, softer private investment, and inflation squeezing households. Inflation Watch: July inflation in the Philippines is seen holding near 6.4% y/y, keeping pressure on the central bank to stay hawkish. US Rates & Markets: Wall Street ended July choppy but higher as long-end Treasury yields rose; the yen stayed in focus after Japan/US coordination and intervention talk, while Fed officials split on whether inflation risks justify hikes. Big Tech AI Spend: Investors are rethinking the AI trade as Alphabet, Meta and Amazon ramp capex sharply, raising the question of when returns will catch up. Meta Earnings: Meta’s Q2 results triggered another sell-off tied to free cash flow weakness and higher capex guidance. Taiwan Growth: Taiwan’s economy grew 12.9% in Q2, powered by AI-driven exports, reinforcing the semiconductor demand outlook. Emerging-Market Credit: Fitch flags that Strait of Hormuz disruptions and El Niño could thin buffers and worsen risk appetite. Pakistan Flood Disruption: Hyderabad’s monsoon rains paralyzed civic life, with power and water failures hitting markets and daily operations. Airfare Pricing Power: Airlines warn fares may stay elevated through 2026 despite fuel volatility, supported by continued demand. Crypto Policy Timing: The Senate’s last stretch before recess keeps XRP’s CLARITY Act in play, a key swing factor for market expectations. India Rates Outlook: RBI is widely expected to hold repo rates in August, but with a hawkish tone as oil and monsoon risks linger.

RBI Policy Watch: India’s central bank is widely expected to hold the repo rate steady in August, keeping a “neutral” stance but with a hawkish tone as inflation risks persist from crude oil, geopolitics, and an uneven monsoon. US Macro & Rates: The Fed’s hawkish hold and a jump in mortgage rates are keeping housing and equities jittery ahead of the jobs report, while US growth is described as sluggish and inflation still above target. Housing Forecasts: Zillow flags a 12-month housing correction, with 20 cities—mostly smaller Sun Belt markets—set for sharper price drops. Tech Earnings Shock: Apple shares slid after supply constraints and a weaker outlook, while Meta’s cash flow and AI capex plans are under scrutiny after a forecast miss. AI Hardware Race: UBS projects Samsung will overtake SK hynix in HBM4 shipments in 2027, signaling intensifying competition for AI memory. Energy & Commodities: Oil markets face disruption risk as Middle East tensions persist; dairy supply in the UK is easing as production decisions respond to lower farmgate prices. Climate & Food: West Africa is pushing agroecology to rebuild soils and boost resilience as weather volatility hits harvests. Infrastructure & Power: New Zealand’s data-center boom faces grid and local-approval friction that could slow execution. EV Momentum: Australia’s EV and hybrid share hit a record 49% in the June quarter, driven by earlier fuel-price spikes.

Labor Market Outlook: Dallas Fed work suggests the “breakeven” job-growth rate may be near zero, meaning unemployment can stay flat even with weak hiring as immigration falls and baby-boomer retirements shrink the labor pool. US Macro & Housing: GDP growth slowed to a sluggish 1.5% in Q2 while the 30-year mortgage rate hit the highest level in a year, adding pressure to affordability. Fed/Markets: Investors are bracing for tighter policy expectations as borrowing costs rise and the bond market pushes back on rate-cut hopes. Apple Supply Chain Shock: Apple beat on Q3 results but warned of “very significant” supply constraints tied to advanced chip and memory shortages; iPhone and Mac demand stayed strong, yet guidance disappointed and shares slid. AI Spending Split: Bloomberg notes investors are rewarding firms that preserve cash while punishing those signaling heavier AI capex, leaving the “AI trade” less uniform than earlier in the cycle. EV & Semis: Rivian shares fell after earnings despite a raised 2026 delivery forecast, while Micron/AMD remain under pressure from sector valuation concerns even as demand holds up. Oil & Shipping: Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruption are tightening supply and lifting oil; BIMCO warns dry-bulk demand may be “phantom” from rerouting, with a 2027 supply overhang. New Zealand Jobs Watch: NZ’s unemployment data due Aug 5 could show the jobless rate rising toward a 11-year high, keeping RBNZ policy in focus. Crypto Flows: XRP ETF inflows are far below early Wall Street forecasts, with the CLARITY Act seen as the key catalyst.

US Rates & Inflation Politics: Trump’s push for Fed cuts is colliding with higher borrowing costs, with the 10-year Treasury above 4.7% and markets pricing more tightening risk into September. AI Mega-Cap Volatility: Wall Street’s “AI payoff” debate stays front and center as Amazon and Microsoft rally on cloud strength, while Apple slides on supply-chain strain and Meta drops on weaker cash flow after heavy AI spending. Middle East Shipping & Consumer Prices: Strait of Hormuz uncertainty is feeding through to everyday costs, with companies raising prices on items from fries to beer as investors weigh inflation risk against market gains. Energy Demand Stress Test: Texas and parts of the US grid are seeing record heat-driven demand, while AI data centers and bitcoin mining complicate reliability planning. Prediction Markets Pushback: Kalshi’s effort to treat political prediction markets like polling faces skepticism from senators over trust and transparency. Gold & Crypto Crosscurrents: Gold is supported by shifting rate expectations, while Bitcoin hovers near $63K as ETF outflows and regulatory uncertainty cool momentum. Asia Tech Trade: South Korea’s exports beat forecasts on AI chip and server demand, reinforcing the global capex cycle. Copper Supply Shock: Chile’s winter storms are disrupting major copper operations, tightening supply and lifting prices near record levels.

Apple Supply-Chain Shock: Apple shares plunged after Tim Cook warned memory and processor shortages will keep hitting iPhone, Mac and iPad supply, with services growth decelerating and a weaker September-quarter outlook—an update that risks roughly $500B in market value. Big Tech Counterweight: Amazon rallied on a strong AWS quarter and a higher 2026 AI capex plan ($220B) while still flagging capacity constraints into 2027–2028; Microsoft also surged after upbeat cloud guidance, easing AI-spend fears. Rates & Inflation Pressure: Treasury yields jumped after Fed officials argued for further hikes, while US labor costs rose slightly in Q2—supporting a “higher for longer” backdrop that kept markets choppy. Oil Market Volatility: Oil posted its biggest monthly gain since the Iran war began as Strait of Hormuz disruptions raised supply-flow concerns, feeding inflation worries. Housing Outlook: Canada’s CMHC expects subdued home prices through 2026 amid uncertainty, high borrowing costs and slower population growth. Energy & Industrials: Forum Energy Technologies jumped after earnings beats tied to drilling/completions and artificial lift strength; Questerre shut a Brazil oil-shale facility for corrective maintenance. Healthcare & Diagnostics: CareDx shares rose after lifting full-year guidance on transplant surveillance demand and reimbursement tailwinds. Markets & Forecast Themes: AI Infrastructure Bottleneck: Amazon’s results underline that demand is there, but memory and capacity are the limiting factors. Supply Constraints Spreading: Apple’s forecast shows shortages are now reaching consumer electronics at scale.

Big Tech AI Spend & Markets: Microsoft’s upbeat Azure outlook sparked a tech-led rebound, lifting US futures and helping Europe extend a fourth straight month of gains, while investors weigh whether AI capex is translating into cash. Apple Supply Crunch: Apple’s final Tim Cook earnings call ended on a cautious note as supply-chain constraints pushed a slower September-quarter revenue outlook, even as the June quarter beat on iPhone and Mac strength. US Growth & Rates Watch: US GDP growth slowed to 1.5% in Q2, with inflation still sticky, keeping the jobs report and a heavy earnings calendar in focus. Oil & Geopolitics: Oil held around $92/bbl as markets tracked renewed US-Israel-Iran blockade talk and shipping disruptions, feeding energy-price sensitivity. UK Housing & Retail Real Estate: Rightmove cut its new-build revenue outlook as supply remains thin, while broader housing affordability pressures keep prices in a “rebalancing” phase. Corporate Earnings Signals: ITV said the World Cup boosted first-half ads but forecast a weaker third quarter; Roblox slid after bookings and user growth missed amid child-safety changes. Global Rates: Japan’s BoJ held at 1% but signaled further hikes; Azerbaijan’s central bank kept its key rate corridor unchanged at 6.5%. Industrials & Autos: Toyota retained global sales leadership but warned Middle East disruptions and China weakness hit profits; EU commercial vehicle demand strengthened in 2026.

Fed/Inflation Watch: Investors are still uneasy after Warsh’s FOMC messaging left “strategy” unclear as June inflation eased to 3.7% but oil and potential tariffs could re-heat prices, keeping bond yields jumpy. Big Tech & AI Capex: Microsoft surged on a forecast-beating quarter and signals it will keep cash flowing from AI; the same theme lifted Amazon, where AWS revenue rose 37% to $42.2B and Amazon raised 2026 capex to about $220B to meet AI-driven demand. Crypto Sentiment: Coinbase slid after revenue and earnings missed as token prices and trading volumes weakened. Japan Macro: Tokyo core inflation accelerated to 1.9% in July and factory output rose 1.3% in June, reinforcing the BOJ’s hawkish path. Asia Property: Colliers cut Metro Manila office demand and raised vacancy expectations, citing Middle East-linked delays. Hong Kong Housing: Home-price gains are expected to cool after the strongest first half in seven years. Corporate Earnings: Dexcom lifted its full-year outlook on sustained CGM demand; Stryker beat on implants but missed in a key unit; regional banks posted mixed results. Energy/Geopolitics: Shell profit more than doubled on Iran-war-driven prices, while oil inventories fell sharply. Policy/Markets: China’s leadership set a second-half agenda to boost domestic demand and tech innovation amid volatility.

Central Banks & Rates: The Bank of England held bank rate at 3.75% in a split 6-3 vote, but warned policy could change if Middle East-linked energy shocks keep inflation sticky. Ukraine Macro: Ukraine’s central bank lifted its inflation forecasts to 10% for 2026 and 6.9% for 2027, while also unexpectedly raising the key policy rate to 15.5% to contain persistent core pressures. AI Compute & Markets: Meta’s CEO said the company could both build AI compute and rent it out, but investors focused on a 91% free-cash-flow drop to $784m, sending the stock lower. Semiconductors & Memory Outlook: Omdia raised its 2026 semiconductor revenue forecast on AI-driven memory demand; TrendForce expects DRAM supply to stay constrained while NAND loosens in 2H27. Energy & Commodities: Shell profit more than doubled to $9.8bn as Iran-war pricing lifted results; Glencore reported H1 copper output up 15% to 397,000 tonnes. Corporate Earnings: Carrier sees residential HVAC returning to replacement mode and raised full-year expectations; Robinhood beat Q2 EPS and revenue, with record net deposits. Industrial/Materials: Technip Energies cut its 2026 margin outlook for project delivery after Middle East disruptions hit costs. Market Tech/Forecasts: Dell’Oro expects broadband access equipment sales to grow ~0.5% annually to 2030, peaking in 2028 on DOCSIS 4.0 and fibre builds.