AGP Executive Report

Japan Growth Watch: Japan’s April-June GDP rose at a slower-than-expected annualised 1.1% (0.3% quarter-on-quarter), with private consumption flat and capital spending down 1.2%, while exports held up on US hybrid-vehicle demand and AI-related semiconductor equipment. New Zealand Inflation Signal: NZ food inflation eased, with food prices up 1.9% year-on-year to July, while fuel fell month-on-month—an important read ahead of the 2 Sept RBNZ decision. NZ Labour Market / Election Backdrop: A NZ Adviser-style review flags broker lending momentum, while another analysis notes unemployment is higher than in 2023 and may rise further into November, with inflation lower—shaping the pre-election economic narrative. UK Housing Cooling: Rightmove says August asking prices fell 2.0% (£7,360) month-on-month, the biggest August drop since 2018, and it cut its 2026 forecast to flat-to-down as mortgage and tax fears bite. Australia Tax Shock for Renters: Labor’s negative gearing reforms could cost some Sydney tenants up to $24,700 a year, pushing demand toward pricier new builds. Energy & Commodities: Illinois farmers warn high energy costs are squeezing margins, while covert Strait of Hormuz oil flows are helping keep Brent in the $80–90 range. AI/Markets: Wall Street’s AI trade stays dominant, but fund rotations show selectivity—hedge funds trimmed Broadcom and added Taiwan Semiconductor.

Retail & Rates Watch: US markets softened after July retail sales fell 0.6% m/m and Michigan consumer sentiment slid to 51, keeping inflation jitters alive even as core CPI cooled—setting up a key earnings week for Walmart, Target and Home Depot. AI Infrastructure Finance: Nvidia unveiled a plan to help channel up to $500B into AI infrastructure, while Goldman Sachs sees global AI investment near $1T in 2026, with spending staying heavy into 2028. Shipping Profit Boost: Maersk raised 2026 guidance again as port congestion and tighter container capacity pushed freight rates higher. Crypto Volatility: XRP rebounded above $1 after briefly slipping, with Peter Brandt saying he’d rather hold Bitcoin. Food & Commodities: Black Sea export disruptions are lifting wheat prices and reshuffling import demand, with USDA raising some export forecasts. UK Cost-of-Living: Another heatwave risk and higher UK energy bills threaten to re-ignite inflation pressure. India Equities: Analysts see earnings-driven upside in select Indian names, while Equitree CIOs favor small/microcaps over expensive midcaps.

US Macro: Retail sales fell 0.6% in July (biggest drop in over a year) while inflation eased but prices stayed high, adding to worries that consumer momentum is cooling. Markets: The S&P 500 slipped from record highs as investors weighed weaker data and Middle East tensions; chip and AI-linked names also wobbled after “beat-and-raise” expectations ran hot. Energy & Geopolitics: Iran-related Strait of Hormuz disruption kept oil sensitive, with the IEA cutting 2026 supply forecasts and traders watching shipping risk closely. AI Infrastructure: Data centers are projected to surge in power demand, while grid delays push firms toward on-site generation; one research team claims a platinum durability breakthrough could help. Crypto Flows: Chainlink jumped on sharply higher spot volume and derivatives activity, while Ethereum’s outlook hinges on key resistance levels as ETF flows turned negative. Corporate/Policy: ICE reversed a sole-source $125M Thomson Reuters surveillance deal, moving to competition; meanwhile, Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 results outpaced Novo as legal fights over ad claims heat up. Emerging Markets FX: Morgan Stanley laid out three Egyptian pound scenarios tied to oil and Hormuz reopening odds.

AI IPO Valuation Watch: Anthropic’s reported 2028 revenue target of $190–$200B is driving how bankers price its potential IPO, with investors using forward enterprise value-to-revenue multiples rather than today’s $47B run rate. Consumer Demand Signals: U.S. consumer sentiment fell to 51 as inflation worries and weaker business expectations returned, while July inflation and producer prices cooled enough to shift rate-hike odds toward a hold. Semis Momentum: Memory stocks rallied after Sandisk sized the flash market and authorized big buybacks; Micron also surged with analysts projecting further DRAM/NAND gains and targets near $1,625. AI Infrastructure Power Crunch: Dell’Oro says agentic AI and inference workloads are expanding front-end data center switch demand, while Nvidia-linked commentary highlights the scale of power needs for AI buildouts. Geopolitics & Commodities: Wheat prices jumped about 25% on Black Sea export disruptions; gold firmed on hopes of de-escalation around Iran even as oil risk stays in focus. Energy & Markets: Europe snapped a four-week rally as crude rose and tensions returned, despite strong earnings. Defense Industrial Policy: Reliance and Rolls-Royce plan an indigenous AMCA aero-engine ecosystem in India, aiming to cut dependence on foreign suppliers. Local Economy: Rising U.S. grocery prices are again testing Trump and Republicans ahead of midterms.

AI Infrastructure & Power Crunch: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang warned data centers will hit hard power limits, even as chipmakers position GPUs as “investable” infrastructure and big finance lines up for $500B+ AI compute funding. Semis Earnings & Valuation Pressure: Cisco reported accelerating AI networking orders (AI infra revenue guidance raised), but the market still punished AI-exposed chip names after Applied Materials’ upbeat outlook failed to impress. Rates, Retail, and FX: US retail sales fell and consumer sentiment weakened, pushing the dollar lower and shifting bets toward a rate hold. Oil & Geopolitics: Oil climbed on US threats of an “indefinite” Iran naval blockade and economic pressure, while Hormuz risk kept supply worries alive. Europe Gas Weather Risk: Forecasters say only an exceptionally strong El Niño could ease Europe’s LNG needs this winter, otherwise demand likely stays higher. Space Economy: Novaspace pegged in-orbit services at ~$3B over the next decade, while AST SpaceMobile faced scrutiny over whether backlog converts fast enough. Earnings Watch: Intel raised ~$20B via share sale for foundry revival; several smaller firms posted mixed Q2 results. Food & Climate: Kenya faces below-normal rainfall risk, and Alaska’s Bristol Bay sockeye outlook points to more, smaller fish.

Energy Shock to Consumer Budgets: With the US war with Iran now stretching into its sixth month, gasoline is staying near the politically sensitive $4 level; the national average regular petrol price hit about $4.006 per gallon (Aug 10), and EIA cut its earlier 2026 gasoline decline forecast to an average of $3.78 vs $3.10 in 2025, while energy prices are up sharply year-on-year and overall inflation has risen. Household Demand Cooling: FMCG spending growth is projected to slow to just 1–2% in 2026 as shoppers get selective; Worldpanel by Numerator says FMCG spend is up only 1.6% through June and even fell in Q2, with more consumers expecting their finances to worsen. Medtech Growth Watch (Forecasts): A wave of market outlooks points to continued expansion across healthcare hardware and services—maternal-infant equipment (to $8.82B by 2030), mechanical thrombectomy devices (9% CAGR), mammography devices (to $3.81B by 2030), mechanical ventilators (to $9.54B in 2026), and medical device connectivity (to $12.76B by 2030). Infection-Control & Lab Tech: Masks are forecast to keep shrinking (down to $6.54B by 2030), while lab and sterilization categories look steadier, including low-temperature plasma sterilizers (10.7% CAGR) and lyophilization equipment (11.1% CAGR).

Oil & Geopolitics: The US signaled it could keep an “indefinite” naval blockade of Iran, while Strait of Hormuz traffic stays thin—yet crude still slid as demand worries and a big US crude build hit sentiment. Energy Outlook: OPEC cut 2026 oil demand growth to 580k bpd and the IEA flagged deeper demand contraction, reinforcing a softer demand-for-supply balance. Markets & Rates: Softer US PPI and steadier inflation expectations helped the S&P 500 notch a record close, with tech leading as rate-hike fears eased. AI & Semis: Memory makers rallied on the back of AI-driven demand optimism, but warnings persist that memory supply tightness could keep prices elevated into 2027. Housing: Australia’s big-city prices are under pressure, with Sydney and Melbourne most exposed in a downside scenario. China Consumer Demand: Chinese outbound travel forecasts were trimmed as economic gloom makes travelers more selective. Corporate Earnings: CXAI reported 79% sequential revenue growth and strong ARR metrics; Newsmax posted its first profit since going public; several homebuilders and AI-infrastructure-linked firms updated investors on mixed execution and guidance. Crypto/Tech Infrastructure: Conflux set a v3.1.0 hard fork for Aug. 25, while AI infrastructure spending remains a key swing factor for risk appetite.

Oil & Energy: Brent fell to $87.69 and WTI to $81.97 as OPEC cut 2026 demand growth to 580k bpd and the IEA expects consumption to contract by 1.6m bpd, while a big U.S. crude inventory build added pressure; Geopolitics: Iran–U.S. tensions keep supply risks elevated, limiting downside; Copper & Weather Risk: Antofagasta slid after Chilean storms forced a Los Pelambres output downgrade, though half-year results beat on higher realized prices; Rates & Inflation: Australia’s RBA is holding at 4.35% after earlier hikes, with officials saying inflation remains too high and further tightening is possible; Consumer & Retail: Wayfair reported post-COVID order strength and plans another store, while Tapestry lifted its annual outlook on resilient Coach demand but flagged weakness at Kate Spade; Tech & Markets: S&P 500 year-end forecasts cluster around ~6% gains, with dispersion widening; Capital Markets & Corporate: Cellebrite named a new CEO after a planned transition; Housing & Local Economy: Queen Anne’s County approved a $45k feasibility study for a multi-sport tourism complex; Climate & Agriculture: Norfolk’s drought relief is coming with a multi-day rain forecast after extreme heat.

US Markets & Rates: Stocks climbed after July CPI matched expectations, easing September hike fears while AI infrastructure earnings (CoreWeave, Super Micro, Nebius, Lumentum) kept tech bid strong. Oil & Energy Forecasts: The IEA cut 2026 oil demand by 1.6 mb/d on Strait of Hormuz disruption and higher fuel prices, while Opec also trimmed demand growth; prices stayed rangebound as supply risks battled weaker consumption. US Gas Outlook: EIA flagged record 2026 natural gas output, driven by Permian and Haynesville growth and LNG export ramp-ups. Housing & Credit: Mortgage rates dipped after in-line CPI, but affordability stayed tight for first-time buyers; ANZ warned Australia’s tax changes are cooling mortgage demand and flagged softer housing activity. AI & Software Economics: Canva slowed AI rollout after compute costs rose faster than expected, highlighting the industry shift from “token cost” to unit economics. AI Chips Volatility: Cerebras shares fell after mixed results—cloud surged, but hardware revenue dropped—showing demand is uneven across the stack. Global Macro Tightening: Mongolia’s central bank raised its key rate to 12.5% to tackle inflation and excess liquidity. Agriculture: USDA lifted US corn and soybean production estimates, while wheat outlook tightened; energy costs also weighed on farm margins. Telecom Capital Returns: Telstra announced a A$1bn buyback alongside modest profit growth. Real Assets & Energy Deals: Journey Energy agreed to sell Northwest Alberta assets for $28m to fund Duvernay light oil development.

US CPI Focus: Wall Street heads into Wednesday’s July CPI with futures slightly higher as investors weigh whether inflation is cooling enough to keep the Fed on hold, while oil’s recent jump from Hormuz risk keeps the rate outlook jittery. Energy Shock & Forecast Cuts: The IEA warns oil stockpiles are “rapidly depleting,” cutting 2026 supply and demand outlooks as Strait of Hormuz disruption and maritime attacks keep inventories draining. AI Earnings Lift Risk Appetite: Tech-led gains show up in futures and Asia after upbeat AI infrastructure updates (CoreWeave, Super Micro, Foxconn), reinforcing demand for compute and servers. Data Centers as Finance Theme: Bank of America unveils a $250B critical infrastructure push spanning data centers, semis, power and transport, while Allianz flags the data center insurance market could more than double to £17.8bn by 2030. Geopolitics Hits Real Assets: UBS flags Europe and footwear as JD Sports’ weak spots ahead of its update, and On Holding shares tumble on slower Americas growth. Crypto Volatility: Bitcoin rebounds above $64k after a leveraged-position flush ahead of CPI. Local Governance: New Mexico lawmakers discuss a potential statewide data center moratorium, targeting projects like Project Jupiter.

AI Compute Earnings: CoreWeave shares jumped in extended trading after a Q2 beat, with revenue up 112% to $2.58B and a narrowed adjusted loss, while backlog topped $104B and guidance was raised—fueling a broader AI data-center optimism. AI Infrastructure Spending: CoreWeave also lifted its 2026 capex outlook to $35B–$39B, underscoring how “neocloud” demand is driving major compute buildouts. Macro Outlook—New Zealand: S&P Global upgraded its NZ growth momentum view, keeping 2028–2029 growth at 2.4% and expecting inflation to drift back toward the Reserve Bank’s 1–3% comfort zone, with the cash rate seen peaking around 3%. Housing Pressure—Australia: CBA posted record cash earnings but warned mortgage demand has cooled sharply since May tax changes, with new applications down and investor demand weaker. Housing Pressure—US: Existing home sales fell again in July as higher mortgage rates and tight supply kept inventories low, with the 30-year fixed rate rising to 6.69%. Geopolitics & Commodities: Ukraine cut its 2026/27 grain export forecast by up to 12% after Odesa port attacks, while oil and rates stayed sensitive to Middle East headlines. Energy & Markets: RBA held rates at 4.35% but left the door open to more hikes, keeping property and borrowing in focus. Corporate/Legal: TWO (Two Harbors) hit back at a lawsuit from UWMC tied to its MSR-focused REIT deal process.

Central Bank Watch: Australia’s RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% but kept a hawkish tone, trimming its inflation path (headline to 3.6% by December) while warning inflation is still “too high,” keeping another hike on the table. US Macro & Rates: A surprise US jobs miss showed unemployment falling to 4.1% while wage growth cooled, shifting rate expectations and leaving markets focused on upcoming inflation data. Energy & Geopolitics: Oil stayed near $90 as Iran-related Strait of Hormuz tensions resurfaced, lifting yields and pressuring risk assets. AI & Semis: TSMC approved a ~$29.44B expansion budget for AI-driven demand; Intel moved to raise up to $20B via a stock sale; CoreWeave’s earnings loom as investors watch whether the AI cloud rally can hold. Housing & Consumer: NAHB data points to California leading remodeling activity, while RBA-linked housing softness remains a key risk. Corporate Movers: Upwork shares plunged after a weak revenue outlook; Aramark raised organic growth guidance; Uniper’s profits surged as Germany prepares to sell its stake. Tech/Markets: Unitree’s humanoid robot IPO was massively oversubscribed, underscoring investor appetite for physical AI.

Housing & Rates: ANZ and NAB forecasts are turning cautious for Australia, with Sydney house prices flagged for sharp declines (ANZ: -14.5% from peak; NAB: up to -10% over 2026), while other capitals show smaller but still weakening late-year trends. Oil & Inflation Risk: The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve hit a fresh low since the 1980s, and Strait of Hormuz reopening chatter keeps energy volatility high—raising the stakes for upcoming inflation prints and Fed rate expectations. South Africa Fuel Costs: Early Central Energy Fund data points to September petrol and diesel increases, with diesel facing the biggest jump. AI & Markets: A contrarian AI-bull message from a former hedge fund manager argues investors are only “halfway” through the AI run, while Wall Street’s record highs face a near-term test from inflation data. Corporate Moves: RBC agreed to sell Moneris to Francisco Partners (~$2B), and Diana Shipping ended a vessel acquisition deal with Star Bulk while keeping its financing intact. Tech/Healthcare Earnings: Suntory’s flat alcohol sales mask a steep profit margin squeeze; Johnson & Johnson and Medtronic both look positioned post-earnings, while NXP shares slid after results despite a beat. Crypto/Tokenization: Standard Chartered’s XRP outlook ties upside to policy and ETF inflows, but near-term catalysts remain uncertain.

Fed Watch: Bank of America warns Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s vague reaction function is raising risk premiums via higher Treasury yields, pressuring mortgages, business borrowing, and growth. Rates & Markets: Reuters notes markets still price about a 50-50 chance of a September hike after soft July payrolls, with attention turning to Wednesday’s inflation print and heavy Treasury supply. AI & Semis: J.P. Morgan lifts its S&P 500 target to 8,000, citing AI infrastructure backlogs turning into revenue; Micron faces a memory upcycle peak risk as Citi trims its price target and flags rising China competition. Tech Spending Trade-offs: Figma and Canva report AI “cost walls,” slowing growth and rollout pace as users sometimes bypass generative tools. Energy & Geopolitics: Maersk says a Red Sea/Suez route will resume gradually via the Gemini Cooperation, while oil stays supported by Middle East uncertainty. Corporate Earnings: Lyft posts record bookings but signals slower growth ahead as marketing incentives rise; Tyson cuts beef profitability outlook on cattle supply constraints. China Credit: China’s unwanted credit dynamic shows banks competing for assets while ordinary loan demand stays weak. Crypto: Bitcoin hovers near $65k as ETF inflows continue, but technicals still point to resistance risk.

Fed Watch: US jobs cooled (23k jobs lost in July) and markets trimmed September hike odds, but the Fed’s August inflation forecast is still a live risk for the FOMC. Oil & Inflation: Iran–Oman talks keep the Strait of Hormuz reopening uncertain, leaving Brent above $80 and raising the stakes for Wednesday’s US CPI. Asia Equities: Wall Street’s record close lifted sentiment across Asia; Taiwan edged higher near 23,060, while South Korea slid on the week’s rate jitters. Philippines Power: Rooftop solar is set to push down wholesale spot electricity prices as demand falls and supply margins widen, with lawmakers advancing the “Sariling Kuryente” bill. Philippines Tech Exports: SEIPI expects electronics exports to top $50B (about $53–54B) as semiconductors—key to AI infrastructure—drive growth. Philippines Market Outlook: Unicapital cut its PSEi target to 6,650, citing geopolitics, political noise, and El Niño inflation pressure. Regional Macro Theme: GSMA says mobile tech is worth $1T to Asia-Pacific (5.9% of GDP) and could reach $1.4T by 2030, with AI, trust, resilience, and sovereignty shaping the next phase. Commodities: Gold closed near $4,342 as weak labor data shifted rate expectations. Corporate/Investing: Atlassian surged after results despite a softer growth guide; Sandisk sank on Q1 guidance concerns even as NAND strength supported margins.

Apple & China Chips: Apple is testing memory chips from China’s CXMT but says any deeper supply partnership needs White House clearance, highlighting how AI-driven memory price pressure collides with U.S. export limits. Semiconductors Earnings Pulse: Bank of America reiterated Nvidia as its top semiconductor pick ahead of Aug. 26 results, citing undervaluation and steady margins, while Palantir jumped ~10% after Q2 beat and a raised BofA $255 target. AI Infrastructure Theme: Jim Cramer pushed “theme” investing for the rest of 2026—AI infrastructure, cybersecurity, and healthcare—while Wall Street also debates a “P7” leadership shift toward memory/AI suppliers. Data Center Volatility: CoreWeave’s Aug. 11 earnings are set up for ~15% post-report swings as investors weigh GPU demand against capex and buildout timelines. Macro & Rates: Gold surged toward $4,372 after weak U.S. jobs data, shifting rate-hike expectations; meanwhile mortgage rates are again spiking, tightening affordability. Energy Grid Stress: Europe faces heat and a solar eclipse that will stress power balancing, with no broad blackouts expected. Agribusiness & Weather: CNH warned of a “trough year” as profits fell 25% and channel inventory is being cut, while South Korea’s heat is driving sharp food price jumps. Crypto Policy: Grayscale says the U.S. CLARITY Act looks unlikely this year, leaving crypto regulation on two tracks.